Backcasting as a Tool in Competitive Analysis

The focus of this chapter is on the use of backcasting in competitive analysis to improve the understanding of the strategic directions and actions of a firm that may be a competitor or a potential collaborator. Intended for use as a competitive weapon, this tool is formulated to assess the distinct technological and organizational competencies a firm is exploiting. This we advocate in order to analyze a firm’s strategic thrusts before they become obvious in the marketplace. Competitive analysis is concentrated on a level that can reveal discernible comparative advantage vis-a-vis other players, rather than merely looking at the end products a firm offers or the markets it serves. By examining a range of plausible futures and understanding the possible ‘stepping stones’ a firm intends to take in reaching its desired targets, competitive intelligence can facilitate countermoves through strategy formulation to gain advantageous maneuvering. Armed with this kind of planning framework, a firm can address the issues of where, how and why-competitors’ intended actions could impact its own competitive leadership. One example is drawn from a study which has implemented this approach, the organizational competence analysis of a large Japanese multinational corporation. It is expected that the learning gained from this backcasting approach will improve the utility of competitive analysis in strategy formulation of firms harried by rapidly changing business environment.